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Dive Bar Pub Crawl 2018 - Second Six

I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk.
The legal cannabis industry already has a ton of risk in it - but this stuff - is only for thrill seekers. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell.
I've limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept to most recent financial statements You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I see in their financial statements.
I haven't been consistent in following them all over the past year: some I have, others not.
The first one this year.....is here
LDS - Lifestyle Delivery Systems
Price Then: $0.34 - Price Now: $0.37
Bleh. Still looks like a very expensive front office for a million a year in revenue and 50% margin. Leverage is nose bleed inducing, $26MM in accumulated deficit, and no real end in sight. If I was a shareholder - I’d be all over mgmt. As in: ‘when will a business actually emerge here?’. Still looks like an ATM for mgmt.
RTI - Radient Technologies
Price Then: $1.54 - Price Now: $0.77
Take out the bank balance, the market is valuing the business at about $0.50. For 2 years of stagnant revenue and billowing losses...$7MM last 2 quarters alone...meh. They do look to be operationalizing, perhaps that’s the dev cycle this industry business model is within. If that’s the case, I’m looking to see what happens over the next year - and if the spend justifies the returns.
Investors should be hoping their sales pipeline doesn’t turn into a TransMountain.
TNY - Tinley Beverage Company
Price Then: $0.85 - Price Now: $0.46
Funny enough, Tinley came across the radar a few months ago, and the elves took a stab at it. A couple of fans of this outfit took umbrage with their characterization at the time. They still didn’t put up any math though. Nor referenced the financials.
I was talking with u/GoBlueCdn the other day on the phone, and in conversation, he said: ‘fundamentals will always bear out.’ I couldn’t agree more. The noise and heat and smoke and knees and elbows of the intra-houday/week/month price moves….will always get throat-punched by solid ops. Never a question of it. It’s simply a function of time. The question of whether fanboys (and their accusations) will still be there when night turns to day….is an answerable one. They usually melt like toilet paper put into water. I stick to financials. If they're rocking it, I'll say so. If they're not......same deal.
I haven’t looked at these guys since then. Let’s do it again…..
Ok. I could wax poetic for awhile on this, nothing other than incremental at this point really. I don’t have anything against it. I like the idea of drinkables, but I've never tried one. And….I’m woefully ignorant about emulsions and such. If it’s a good product: I’m there. Probably like most people.
The reality is that these guys have tripped and slipped and reset several times…and aren’t delivering. Maybe I have expectations that are unreasonable (like the one’s they’ve established in the investor decks?).
One way or the other, limping along with no sales will eventually catch up with you. Despite the pitch. Revenues fix almost everything.
Onward:
iAn - Ianthus Capital Holdings
Scratched! Now post merger with MPX - and that I’ve already done that one - means redundancy at this juncture. We’ll skip this, and add a newcomer to the list at the end. Xmas surprise time!
CHV - Canada House Wellness Group Inc
Price Then: $0.37 - Price Now: $0.13
“You are now entering Liquidation City”
Population: CHV
Home of the ‘cash only’ auction. All purchases must be removed by 5PM or goods and purchase price will be forfeited
From doing these guys last year, I recall vividly how much I appreciate good disclosure. With it, there’s not only many more items to divine the entrails of - it also allows one to get a 3D look at an outfit. Often, business dislikes this for obvious reasons (it signals activities/plans/competitive advantages), but also because many people are uncomfortable taking a shower in public.
I took my foot off the throttle though after a certain point with these guys - there’s much more to speak to. All of it negative. I went a little overtime on this one, because I like the idea of a patient-centric Canadian producer. But.
If these guys last a year….there’s going to have to be capital infusion, and Note 10 will probably expand to the size of a large city’s phone book. It’s looking as proof that c-suite changes don’t change underlying business realities. And these guys need major changes, in far more than management.
LIB - Liberty Leaf Holdings
Price Then: $0.48 - Price Now: $0.10
  • not much cash, all they had seems to have gone into ‘facility equipment’.
  • Since they don’t seem to have a facility (on their books anyhow) that makes sense.
  • Appears to have pivoted (the elves always chuckle hearing that word) from aspiring producer, to ‘cannabis business accelerator’.
  • I read this as that they took a couple of runs at getting a grow op up, but got high centred on the meridian of ACMPR licensing delays (Pivot Time!)
  • Note 8 & 9 cover their ‘investing activities’. But it’s mainly transactional. If they’re ‘building value’ for shareholders, odd way to do it using paper on non-operating assets, and no apparent uplift able to be predicted.
  • CEO has gotten some help - he’s gone from ‘Chief Cook & Bottle Washer’ to mainly big chair activities.
  • SBC of a million dwarfs all other income statement spends
  • 60% of assets is their own paper, issued as ‘investment in associate’
  • $26MM of S/E? Please meet $26MM deficit in S/E. LIB’s capital is ostensibly only paper, and more paper.
  • If liquidated on hard assets, company would realize $2MM. I didn't have time to look into unconsolidated subs.
  • The loading of optionality in 2019? Pretty much all struck. Most of management's fruit has been shaken from the tree.
  • Whoop. Spoke too soon. Still 5MM of $0.17 options left to go. Looks like there’s still a lot of fruit up top yet
  • Note 19 is all one needs to read on this thing.
This feels like a squatter-aspiring-to-be-taken-out…..shifted to……business-accelerator-ATM-for-mgmt.
The businesses they’ve invested in could use a lot of accelerating btw, they’ve picked ones that are like cars rusting in a field. The blockchain outfit has shed half its value since listing, and the late stage applicant’s business(es) appear to be suspended in amber.
They’re also connected to some clinical trials, a retail facing outfit, among several others. All paper, all the time.
If there’s a business in here outside of a cashlessly fuelled pitch deck (written on lots of paper), I can’t see it. Perhaps something will happen someday. Nothing has in the last 365 of them. Excepting SBC of course. It's been busy there.
QCC - Quadron Cannatech Corp
Price Then: $0.38 - Price Now: $0.12
  • Cash and inventory and liabilities and S/E relatively flat.
  • A/R shows sales throughput
  • 30% margins. G&A lean. SBC exemplary for industry.
  • SBC might also be low because share price has tanked.
  • Sales needed. Slower industry ramp has slowed industry need for equipment. Should be stronger year if the underlying operational capacity begins to expand, and demand for units cranks.
  • Very clean financials. Not much else to say or see.
This one is dead simple in the financial statements. Love love love.
Whether they’ll start extracting revenue, is solely a function of their sales channel. As I’ve learned over the past year - everybody (and I mean everybody) - is in the extraction space. Operating in this industry sub-sector is like being in a sardine can without any oil (pun intended). Crowded space indeed.
Cashflow is the core of business, and, if QCC can compete and succeed within what is a very competitive landscape - all power to them (and Canadian manufacturing as well). Calling this a ‘challenging environment’ is an understatement. Sales need to begin growing. Another year in the same general state will test market patience, which, is looking like its' already becoming impatient.
Disclaimer - I've met Rosy several times now, and have come to respect her very much. I believe she’s a class act: both professionally, and personally. FWIW, full disclosure.
I’m gonna go have some egg nog with the elves and compliment them on their behavior. They don't start drinking until after 1PM most days now.
That they get out of bed around noon, it's not really saying much. Still, a big improvement over last year.
submitted by mollytime to TheCannalysts [link] [comments]

The only arguments against tying POT to Pot, summarily answered

This was a reply to an old post I made last night. I want everyone to see it. I'm obviously replying to the quoted parts.

tl;dr at bottom.
Look at the chart.
I had to comment on this post because it seems like no one in the 'crypto' world actually recognizes the amount of money (FIAT) that goes into creating a business of a grow/co-op.
While I can appreciate your need to speak for "everyone" you do not speak for me. I have and currently do represent a number of Arizona dispensaries in the much needed, reputation management area. I know PRECISELY what goes into a dispensary and grow operation as far as initial capital, fees, build-out, final inspections, advertising, investing in the grow or coop. And then monthly maintenance, building costs, labor, etc, etc. It's a business, we get it. Further, one of my better clients... I know how much he makes per year after costs. And as a non-profit, it has to be given away. If you can give it away and create an economy at the same time...?
And we didn't tell you to
  1. convert solely to cryptocurrency
  2. hold a high stake at any given time in any particular crypto.
Everyone is in a disillusioned world of crypto that doesn't even exist yet.
Once again... speaking for everyone, thanks. YOU are the one that exists in a world where crypto doesn't exist. We are in a different world. Most of us had smartphones while everyone was sporting RAZRs. We had a web presence before many fortune 500 companies. We... are your future. You want national adoption... adopt us first.
WE, are trying to tell you, accept the future, or become the next Blockbuster.
I am going to list some of my expenses that I can't pay for with POTcoin:
Yay
  • Electricity
Solar. There are, good, electronics stores that take BTC for solar. Cause ya'know, hippies. Don't say it can't be done. It's past-tense.
  • Internet * Phone
I really don't have time to list why this is not worth listing.
  • Rent
Everyone in the United States pays rent or mortgage.
  • Insurance
Right, here is an industry that needs crypto too.
  • Payroll
Have you asked? Have you said, hey... wanna get paid in this untraceable currency? You know, the one you don't have to report getting?
  • Taxes
See, previous. Maybe you haven't heard? FedSEC says, Crypto no bueno currency, Crypto = Property. Dispensaries here are non-profit. Donate your property (Pot), we donate our property (POT) and no income is triggered, because POT is based on Pot. Parity trade. NO taxes!
  • Advertising (ads, business cards, flyers)
Dude... if you ACCEPT crypto... you won't spend another dollar on advertising for at least a year. I promise. Everyone HERE promises. Not another dime on advertising. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
  • Office Supplies (pens and paper to computers and printers/ink to office chairs and furniture)
I'll just pretend you didn't list this. If you're hurting so bad for these items, you either need to have a talk with that staff of yours, change habits, or change systems. If it is a matter of state requirements. Don't list it.
  • Maintenance & Cleaning (from paying people to clean to the supplies they use)
So, you can't find some undocumenteds that want bueno crypto? Really? Tell them, UNTRACEABLE... CAN SEND ACROSS ANY BORDER AT 1% OR LESS!
  • Fertilizers and growing supplies
See solar. Hippies. Many accept BTC.
  • Legal Fees
Find a lawyer that takes crypto, they exist.
How do you expect me to forget the fiat game?
Don't want you to. We want you to accept it on par with fiat. That's the idea. YOU are creating the economy.
Even if I only accepted POTcoin,
Surely don't want you to do that. Plus if you are a legit place you have AARP customers that probably aren't privy to crypto. They will cover the rent.
I'd have to exchange to FIAT to pay my bills because AT&T is never going to take PotCoin as payment...
That's actually a direction I am moving toward... servicing customers like you that have crypto and want to interact with the non-crypto world. You add me to your utilities and bills, and I am like the online bill pay for altcoin.
But see, it has to start somewhere!
In 1993 I was begging people to buy domain names. "What the hell do I need that for?" Indeed. I cashed out most of my single noun and single verb domains in the late 90's before the dot com collapse and didn't work for a few years after that from the sales. Coasted right thru the crash.
and the only way to not get screwed by any crazy jumps in the market are to do it instantly at the point of transaction for every purchase... even waiting a day could lose me 20% on days like today.
Once again, that's where my company will fill a need. I'm actually very well trained in high speed trading and forex coding in MT4. This, is rather simple, comparatively.
I will guarantee no-slip membership levels. That means, LOCKED IN TRADES. We take the hit if we make a bad trade, in getting your fiat back.
Please I would love to hear any real options and this isn't an attack on the posters or people in this community, just a very real down to earth and inquisitive request.
Please... take a chance...
THEN... be negative if it doesn't work. Or be a hero, WHEN it does.
The price of your coin went from 1POT = $0.01USD to 1POT = $0.0055USD <~ pretty much a 50% drop in price in the past 3 days. HOW ARE YOU NOT ALL UPSET BY THIS! Even as the price per BTC of POTcoin goes up, you are losing value because you are tied to BTC.

tl;dr
We want to untie from BTC and tie to Weed. I ideally, would like to see a range of:
 0.125 - 0.420 for 1/8th of Medical Grade bottom shelf California state average 
California chosen due to per capita and population.
In fact, here's a nice plot.
http://i.imgur.com/aKxK7yo.jpg
Does that grab your attention? Do you understand how to pay your bills now?
You have to realize, with FedSECs ruling... this is a LEGIT thing. You can literally create value out of nothing. NO ONE HERE WILL COMPLAIN IF YOU FIX THE PRICE OF POT TO POT. Promise. Cross my Heart.
And the biggest thing is... if you can buy an 1/8th of weed for 0.420POT...
it is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for the coin to collapse... ever.
Think about it. But it needs to be mutual agreement, almost cartel like, no undercutting, etc. It's for the benefit of everyone. I even promise not to shop at a place that is undercutting if you fix POT to Pot.
If you fix that price of POT to anything more than a decimal point over in value vs USD... you make A LOT of POTcoin holders wealthy. And the first place they will come to spend their money is on real pot. And depending on how wealthy... maybe AT YOUR PLACE. Because I need a vaca.
http://www.gogreensolar.com/pages/bitcoin-for-solar-energy
http://www.businessinsider.com/defense-lawyer-who-accepts-bitcoins-2013-5
http://eastwesthydro.com/grow-room-resources/buy-hydroponics-with-bitcoins
http://growershouse.com/buy-hydroponics-supplies-with-bitcoins
submitted by SirPokeSmottington to potcoin [link] [comments]

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